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Adults - overview of needs

Needs of adults in Leicester for current and potential providers of services.

Population

In future in Leicester there will be a larger number of older people, living longer. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to grow between 2020 and 2035 by just over 16,000 (65%), and the population of over 85s by 3,000 (50%) in the same period. 

Leicester projected population increases to 2035 for older people

Explanatory note for chart

Leicester projected population increases to 2035 for older people

  • In 2020 44,300 people age 65 or over, 6,000, of whom were age 85 or over
  • By 2035 his is expected to increase to 60,400 people age or over, 9,000, of whom will be age 85 or over

The population of older people will become more ethnically diverse;

There are 3,141 people thought to be living with dementia in Leicester in; 3,065 of these are age 65 years or over, and 76 are under the age of 65.

It is predicted that the number of people with dementia in the city will rise to 4,459 by 2035 – a rise of 1,394.

Overall, there will be significant increases in the number of people who are unable to manage self-care tasks:

  • 2020 – the number of people aged 65 and over unable to manage at least one self-care activity on their own was 12,428.
  • 2035 – the number of people aged 65 and over unable to manage at least one self-care activity on their own is forecast to be 17,441, a rise of around 5,000 people (40%). (Source POPPI and PANSI)

The number of people learning disabilities is projected to grow in the next 15 years:  

  • 2020 – 5,696 people aged 18-64 with a learning disability and 921 people aged 65 and over.
  • 2035 – 6,066 people aged 18-64 predicted to have a learning disability and 1,269 aged 65 and over.  (Source POPPI and PANSI)

An estimated 39,770 adults aged 16-64 living in Leicester have mental health problems. This represents 17.9% of adults in this age group. The proportion of people with mental health problems is projected to increase in Leicester by 18% to 46,928 by 2030.

At the 2011 Census there were a reported 31,000 unpaid carers in Leicester.  However, this is likely to be an under representation of the real number as many do not identify themselves as carers. The State of Caring - Carersuk.org  report published by Carers UK in 2019, suggested that the number of carers nationally has risen significantly since the 2011 Census from 6.3 million to as many as 8.8 million (a rise of around 35%). If this rate of increase is applied to Leicester it would mean that the number of unpaid carers in Leicester is actually closer to 42,000.

The future market for adult care services

  1. There will be a rise in demand for care and support services.
  2. Services will need to meet the needs of an increasingly diverse population.
  3. There will be an increased emphasis on outcome focused services.
  4. The numbers of people using direct payments will rise, meaning that providers will increasingly be marketing their services direct to people who use services.
  5. People will have more information, advice and guidance about services that are available as we develop this aspect of our role. This includes MyChoice, our online directory of services.
  6. The number of placements that we make into residential and nursing care will reduce.
  7. The demand for domiciliary care will rise as more people receive this kind of support instead of residential care, and as their needs rise.
  8. There will be a greater demand for housing that offers integrated care and support, for example Extra Care housing.
  9. There will be an increased expectation that providers who are delivering care in supported and independent living accommodation services will be focused on maximising the health and wellbeing of their clients, with a range of services to support this.
  10. The Transforming Care Programme will mean a potentially small rise in the demand for bespoke supported living settings and support services for people with learning disabilities, in order to meet the needs of individuals who have complex needs.
  11. A key objective for care and support services will be to support people of working age to stay in or find employment.